The statistics of global temperature extremes
In progress
Project goal
Are extremely hot days becoming hotter faster than the average climate? Answering this question has implications for risk management, since temperature extremes have large implications for climate impacts such as mortality. We leverage global observations of extreme temperatures to assess the non-stationarity of the distribution of global extreme temperatures. We will fit nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions across the globe and assess the size and direction of trends in the distribution of extreme temperatures. We will then compare the size and direction of trends in extreme temperatues across CMIP6 climate models, observations, and AI climate emulators to understand agreements and discrepencies in these trends. We will then comment on physical mechanisms that could underpin these agreements or discrepencies.
